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VolumeAtPrice.com Auction Market Theory & Volume-at-Price
The Mathematics of Winning — Interactive Calculator

What's the real Risk of Ruin
on your trading plan?

Most traders never do this math. Enter your numbers below and see, in black and white, the probability that your current approach eventually takes your account to zero.

Your Trading Plan

Tell The Story — Presets

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Risk of Ruin
Enter your numbers to see your Risk of Ruin.
Risk of Ruin = [(1−edge) / (1+edge)] ^ capital units
The Underlying Math
Edge Per Trade
—
Your statistical advantage over a coin-flip, given your win rate and reward:risk.
Capital Units
—
Account size ÷ average risk per trade — how many "bullets" you have.
Expectancy / Trade
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Average dollars won or lost per trade over the long run, before costs.
Break-Even Win Rate
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The minimum win rate you need at this reward:risk just to avoid a negative edge.
In Plain English
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Overcoming Costs — The Hidden Drag

Every round-trip trade carries a "best case" cost of roughly −$17 from commissions + the bid/ask spread (per the ES futures teardown in The Mathematics of Winning). This cost is separate from your edge above — it's a hard drag on every trade you place.

Round-trip cost / trade$17.00
Trades / month100
Cost drag / month$1,700
Cost drag / year$20,400
$20,400
you must out-earn this every year before you make a dollar of real profit

This is exactly why 95% of traders lose.

The math above isn't opinion — it's arithmetic. "The Mathematics of Winning" walks through the full breakdown (risk of ruin, volatility of results, cost drag, and the worst-case trader archetypes) and the volume-at-price method built to survive it.

Get The Free Guide at VolumeAtPrice.com